Why Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Putin's scheduled negotiations on the almost four-year conflict in Ukraine have been put on hold.

Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia leadership summit have been overstated, apparently.

Only a few days after President Trump announced he planned to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.

"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
  • Donald Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
  • Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky departs White House without results

The on-again, off-again meeting is another development in Trump's efforts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in Gaza.

During a speech in the North African country recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.

"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he declared.

Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost several years.

Reduced Influence

According to Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided Trump bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump gained from a long record of supporting Israel dating back to his first term, encompassing his decision to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.

Combine the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has much less influence. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.

Trump has warned to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the global economy and further escalate the conflict.

At the same time, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the nation - then to back off in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.

Trump often boasts about his skill to meet and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Putin's meeting in the summer yielded little tangible outcome.

Putin may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.

In July, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it seemed probable that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards put on hold.

Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then touted the possible summit in Budapest.

The following day, the president hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.

Trump maintained that he was not being played by Putin.

"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out really well," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the president of Ukraine later made note of the sequence of events.

"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.

Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has finally settled on advocating a truce along current battle lines – something Russia has rejected.

On the campaign trail previously, Trump vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since abandoned that commitment, admitting that concluding the war is proving harder than he expected.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when neither side desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.

Regina Anderson
Regina Anderson

A passionate gamer and rewards expert, sharing insights to help players maximize their gaming achievements.