🔗 Share this article

The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, though analysts suggest the party stands little chance of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take months, political observers suggest that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.