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The historic Ashes series could provide one cause for celebration, but this contest will also see the Aussie side host more birthday parties than an arcade in the 90s. Recent addition Jake Weatherald celebrated his thirty-first birthday a day prior to the squad was named. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day before the Perth Test. Beau Webster turns 32 just ahead of the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is out.

Older Squad Fascination Grows

For two or three years there has been growing fascination with the average age of this team and especially the bowling attack. It is unusual to have nearly all player in a Test side being over 30, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that older age was a disadvantage: a Test squad boasting a four-man attack with 1,568 wickets between them is hardly a disadvantage, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are well into their professional lives.

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Perhaps what most amplified the talking point is that the backup bowlers over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their 30s. Emerging pacemen have floated into teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Change Forced by Injuries

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have continued backing up. Any team knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a batch of similarly-timed retirements, but so far change has remained theoretical: a train that would indeed be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that had not become visible.

Now, suddenly, change is upon them, forced upon this Aussie team in the space of a few weeks. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would likely only miss the first Test, was the team management view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the team balance experiences a far greater shift with two players absent rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a weapon of attack. Losing both of them means a major adjustment in the composition of the side. Boland taking the new ball is nothing new in his domestic career, but he has been so successful in Tests coming on after seven to eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll probably have to be the opening bowler.

Newcomer Confronts Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself isn't an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, partly English, for the opening Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many newspaper profiles describe him as relaxed. He could be brought onto the ground on a banana lounge and still be anxious.

Sign up to The Spin

It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is striking is how quickly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. Who knows what new injuries the opening match may cause. It's unknown whether Cummins will be good to go for Brisbane, and good to back up after Brisbane, given how complicated stress fractures can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of getting injured early in tournaments and a pattern of minor injuries becoming extended absences.

Outlook Uncertain

The latter part of the contest may see the main four bowlers reunited and all going well. Or it might experience transition beginning much earlier than the stretch goal of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is seemingly next in line and could be a great pink-ball Brisbane choice, but after that with choices unclear. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also hurt and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm put back on, and this format is no place for easing into one’s work. Beyond them lies the real unknown, and amid it all a chance for the opposing side. You can hear that train a-coming, rolling round the bend, and the English team ain’t seen the sunshine since they can't recall when.