Foreign Office Cautioned Regarding Military Action to Topple Zimbabwe's Leader

Recently released papers reveal that the Foreign Office cautioned against British military intervention to remove the then Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "viable option".

Policy Papers Reveal Considerations on Addressing a "Depressingly Healthy" Leader

Policy papers from Tony Blair's government indicate officials weighed up options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old leader, who refused to step down as the country descended into violence and economic chaos.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.

Policy of Isolation Considered Ineffective

Diplomats concluded that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and building an international agreement for change was not working, having failed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Courses considered in the documents were:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by military means";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-engage", the approach supported by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that altering a government and/or its harmful policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The FCO paper dismissed military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only nation for leading such a military operation is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Heavy Casualties and Legal Hurdles

It warned that military intervention would result in significant losses and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a severe human and political catastrophe – resulting in massive violence, significant exodus of refugees, and instability in the region – we assess that no African state would agree to any attempts to remove Mugabe by force."

The document continues: "Nor do we judge that any other international ally (including the US) would sanction or join military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Long-Term Strategy Advocated

Blair's foreign policy adviser, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "could become a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must play the longer game" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, writing: "We must devise a way of revealing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then subsequently, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a clear understanding."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had advocated cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has said and done".

The Zimbabwean leader was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, aged 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a military coalition to overthrow Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the ex-British leader.